Who will win in 2010?
Posted by Matt Walker on August 5, 2009
A week or two ago saw the Conservatives comfortably win the Norwich North by-election, taking a seat Labour had won comfortably at the 2005 general election. By-elections occur when a sitting MP dies or stands down, and is an election in a single constituency, as opposed to a general election which sees elections take place in every constituency. This by-election took place after the resignation of Ian Gibson over his association with the parliamentary expenses scandal.
Following the Tory win, the media rapidly entered into ‘what if mode?’: what if the result of this by-election, in a single constituency, were repeated across all constituencies in a general election. The answer was a massive Conservative victory, with the green benches of the computer simulated House of Commons turning blue.
This of course is unscientific, and in fact we can easily make our own election predictions which are more accurate.
Alas, such knowledge must await a future blog! In the meantime, click on the graph to read the BBC News article.