Is public opinion shifting back to Labour?
Posted by Matt Walker on November 23, 2009
Firstly, as I pointed out yesterday, it shows that it will be difficult for the Conservatives to win a decent overall majority next year. They have to win a lot of seats, and first-past-the-post is currently working against them. They need around a 10% lead over Labour to have a majority of only one.
Secondly, this poll suggests that the Tories are not terrifically popular. Their average public support in recent months is around 41%, despite the difficulties the Labour government has found itself in. Disgruntled Labour voters seem to be shifting to smaller parties, rather than being won over by David Cameron.
Thirdly, Labour might now hope for a recovery in their levels of support owing to public perception regarding the economy. Around 46% of people believe that the economy will improve over the next year. If this enables Labour to close the gap on the Tories, it will deny the latter a working majority.
Finally, it seems that any recovery for Labour will have to be achieved in the face of continued public opposition to Gordon Brown. Nearly 60% of people are not satisfied with his performance as prime minister.
What’s your gut feeling out there? Who will be governing this country come next summer?