Poll update: who will finish first-past-the-post?
Posted by Matt Walker on February 5, 2010
A YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph shows a slight fall in support for the Conservatives (38%) , and a slight rise for Labour (31%), with the Liberal Democrats (19%) up as well.
According to Electoral Calculus, this would leave the Tories 24 seats short of a majority.
Despite a consistent poll lead for many months, David Cameron will know how tough it will be to gain a majority at the next election. If the Tories are only just short of a majority it will be difficult for his new government, but with a politically and financially broken Labour Party, probably going through a leadership election, he should still be able to set the political agenda, try to to establish his competence for government, then call another election maybe 18 months later.
Labour on the other hand will hope that the polls continue to narrow. According to Electoral Calculus, if we average out recent polls, the result is a Tory victory, two seats short of a majority. It would only take roughly, 2% of Conservative support to shift to Labour for the latter to be the biggest party in the Commons. This of course, will be Labour’s hope. They still, however, have to deal with the fact that many voters would simply prefer anyone but Gordon Brown as their prime minister.
What strategies do you think Labour and Tories should pursue in order to win over more support?